SBB Prices & Indexes
World price +/-
World HRC $/t 812 +39
World Rebar $/t 766 +25
Malaysia Rebar $/t 790
Billet import market in SE Asia awaits clarity
The billet import market in Southeast Asia is proving slow to pick up after the Chinese New Year holidays. “The market is still in a holiday mood,” a regional trader said this week. Import offers are very limited, trading and importing sources tell Steel Business Briefing. In the Philippines, a trader’s position cargo of Russian billet was booked at $655/tonne cfr two weeks ago. Korean material, which enjoys a 3% import duty advantage, is offered at $685/t cfr. “The biggest problem is that rebar prices cannot catch up with the replacement cost of billet. Re-rollers are becoming increasingly better off buying the finished product,” a Manila-based trader tells SBB. “Many rerollers are themselves buying debar instead of billet because the local selling price of Grade 33 debar is even cheaper than the landed cost of a billet imported at $660 cfr,” another says. Malaysian and Thai mills were giving export offers at $680-690/t fob and bookings were heard at $680/t fob to the Middle East. Malaysian-origin billet was booked at $685/t cfr Indonesia.
”We are taking time to assess the market,” says another source. The situation in the Middle East has caused some confusion, with both low and high prices heard in the market. He believes that market players will hold back for the next two weeks because prices have gone up and are now soft. “The market will want to see whether China holds up strongly," he tells SBB. "It's very quiet. People want to see the direction of the market," a Thai trader observes, watching whether the political unrest in Egypt and Tunisia will affect the global steel market. A position cargo of Ukrainianorigin billet was heard booked last week at $660/t cfr Thailand.
Brazil's iron ore exports decline in already tight market
A significant reduction in Brazil's January iron ore exports has increased pressure on an already undersupplied market, Steel Business Briefing learns from Macquarie commodities analysts, who believe the scenario will remain tight throughout the first half of 2011. The "calamitous" 20% month-on-month drop seen in January was somewhat related to the annual rainy season. However, sources tell SBB logistical issues have been a major factor in curtailing exports, as well. "A derailment in rain-afflicted Rio de Janeiro state cut supply to Guaiba port, while damage at the Tubarão terminal caused a huge drop in shipments," Macquarie says. "These difficulties have led to a record level of
port congestion outside Brazilian ore ports (over 10m tonnes), as cargoes were simply not available to load on schedule." Brazilian exports to China declined 23% m-o-m, with other drops also registered in Europe, Japan and Taiwan. The 27.1m t exported last month "highlight that port stockpiles were not sufficient to cope with the shortfall in railings, suggesting a reasonable part of (the) Q4 export boost was destocking." As previously reported, top domestic producer Vale said its iron ore output/exports weren't considerably affected by Brazil's rainfall, but a more significant loss was experienced in Australia, with disruptions of 500,000 t of iron ore and 600,000 t of coal. Market participants believe prices will remain high, driven by a tight offer scenario in the near term. SBB notes the January 2011 drop in exports was the worst in the past five years – surpassing the 18% decline seen in 2008.
Rotterdam FOB scrap prices slide as Turks step away
North European scrap traders say the export market is too quiet to call. The region’s key buyer, Turkey, needs to wait and see what will happen in the Middle East, including Egypt, and is trying to push prices down, sources say. On Friday 4 February, EU offers fell “another $10/tonne” to $475/t cfr for HMS 1&2 80:20, SBB's sources say. This week, the Turkish mills are still not interested despite reports out of Belgium that “HMS 1&2 70:30 is being shown very aggressively at $465/tonne cif”. It may be that this offer is being overplayed to put downward pressure on the market, warns a UK trader. It may be that this offer is being overplayed to put downward pressure on the market, warns a UK trader. But other exporters note lower numbers. “I wouldn’t like doing $460/t cfr [Turkey], but it would be OK,” one trader tells Steel Business Briefing. This equates to $435/t fob Rotterdam, he adds, compared to the peak over three weeks ago when fob levels were up to $495/t. Turkey’s lack of interest can be summed up as follows, a source notes: “If pressed, they’ll bid $425/t cfr. That’s way too low. They’re not serious.” However, other traders are more optimistic. On the demand-side, Asia will be waking up after the New Year celebrations, and on the supply-side, the blizzards could hamper scrap exports out of North America, a German source says. There have been no known contracts out of northwest Europe to Turkey since late January, when a mixed HMS cargo sold from Sweden at $497/t cfr, adds a trader. With freight at over $25/t, the fob equivalent was around $470/t, he notes.
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
Monday, January 31, 2011
Daily Steel News - 31 Jan 11
SBB Prices & Indexes
World price +/-
World HRC $/t 772 +84
World Rebar $/t 741 +73
E. Asian scrap import market slows down ahead of holidays
The scrap import market in east Asia was quiet last week as the region prepared for lunar new year holidays. Offers are very limited and buying interest is reduced. Most traders describe the current market as soft and weak; others say that the market is flat. But the current lull is expected to be temporary because the regional mils have not been actively importing and will need to replenish their scrap inventories. Offer prices for bulk scrap composite 80:20 HMS 1&2 and shredded were prevailing last week at around $510/tonne cfr Singapore/Malaysia. A regional trader says that offers would be around $500/t cfr to Northeast Asia, and that prices have come off by $5-10/t from recent peaks. A bulk cargo of 30,000-35,000 t of scrap from Hong Kong was booked at an effective $505/t cfr Malaysia. It comprised mostly HMS and some Bonus (plate and structural). Traders tell Steel Business Briefing that the deal was done two to three weeks ago. The regional containerised scrap import market is also weak. A Taiwanese mill reportedly booked 3,000 t of 80:20 from west coast USA at $455/t cfr late last week, down
from another import booking by another local mill at $460/t cfr the previous week. In Vietnam, SBB is told of a booking last week of containerized scrap from Australia at $473/t cfr for 80:20 and $478/t cfr for shredded. Market sources report that they have hardly any bulk offers to Vietnam recently. Offers for small bulk cargoes of 2,000-5,000 t were last heard at around $500/t cfr and bigger bulk cargoes at $520-530/t cfr.
Turkish, Indian scrap import prices ease back off highs: TSI
Turkish and Indian scrap reference prices released by The Steel Index (TSI) last Friday both fell slightly after hitting peak prices recently. However, both reference prices are around 5% higher than four weeks earlier. The Turkish import price for HMS1&2 80:20 dropped $8/t last week to $496/tonne CFR Turkish port, as those buyers in the deep-sea market booked European material which was cheaper than US-origin offers. This is $21/t above the level published four weeks previously. The Indian containerised shredded scrap import price was almost unchanged at $482/tonne CFR Nhava Sheva port, a dip of 0.2% since a week earlier, as buyers rejected the higher American offers. The next scrap reference price to be launched by TSI will be for US domestic shredded obsolete scrap. This is currently undergoing the validation phase, during which TSI collects data and calculates the reference price unofficially. TSI advised, for the week ending January 28, that US domestic scrap price also decreased slightly to $474/long ton, which is $14/lt higher than four weeks ago. TSI is majority-owned by Steel Business Briefing and specialises in compiling steel, iron ore and scrap TSI is majority-owned by Steel Business Briefing and specialises in compiling steel, iron ore and scrap reference prices by collecting and averaging actual transaction data. Further details of the methodology and specifications for the steel, iron ore and scrap grades covered can be found on the website www.thesteelindex.com. Companies wishing to subscribe to TSI's full set of reference prices or to apply to submit steel, iron ore or scrap price data can do so on the website.
World price +/-
World HRC $/t 772 +84
World Rebar $/t 741 +73
E. Asian scrap import market slows down ahead of holidays
The scrap import market in east Asia was quiet last week as the region prepared for lunar new year holidays. Offers are very limited and buying interest is reduced. Most traders describe the current market as soft and weak; others say that the market is flat. But the current lull is expected to be temporary because the regional mils have not been actively importing and will need to replenish their scrap inventories. Offer prices for bulk scrap composite 80:20 HMS 1&2 and shredded were prevailing last week at around $510/tonne cfr Singapore/Malaysia. A regional trader says that offers would be around $500/t cfr to Northeast Asia, and that prices have come off by $5-10/t from recent peaks. A bulk cargo of 30,000-35,000 t of scrap from Hong Kong was booked at an effective $505/t cfr Malaysia. It comprised mostly HMS and some Bonus (plate and structural). Traders tell Steel Business Briefing that the deal was done two to three weeks ago. The regional containerised scrap import market is also weak. A Taiwanese mill reportedly booked 3,000 t of 80:20 from west coast USA at $455/t cfr late last week, down
from another import booking by another local mill at $460/t cfr the previous week. In Vietnam, SBB is told of a booking last week of containerized scrap from Australia at $473/t cfr for 80:20 and $478/t cfr for shredded. Market sources report that they have hardly any bulk offers to Vietnam recently. Offers for small bulk cargoes of 2,000-5,000 t were last heard at around $500/t cfr and bigger bulk cargoes at $520-530/t cfr.
Turkish, Indian scrap import prices ease back off highs: TSI
Turkish and Indian scrap reference prices released by The Steel Index (TSI) last Friday both fell slightly after hitting peak prices recently. However, both reference prices are around 5% higher than four weeks earlier. The Turkish import price for HMS1&2 80:20 dropped $8/t last week to $496/tonne CFR Turkish port, as those buyers in the deep-sea market booked European material which was cheaper than US-origin offers. This is $21/t above the level published four weeks previously. The Indian containerised shredded scrap import price was almost unchanged at $482/tonne CFR Nhava Sheva port, a dip of 0.2% since a week earlier, as buyers rejected the higher American offers. The next scrap reference price to be launched by TSI will be for US domestic shredded obsolete scrap. This is currently undergoing the validation phase, during which TSI collects data and calculates the reference price unofficially. TSI advised, for the week ending January 28, that US domestic scrap price also decreased slightly to $474/long ton, which is $14/lt higher than four weeks ago. TSI is majority-owned by Steel Business Briefing and specialises in compiling steel, iron ore and scrap TSI is majority-owned by Steel Business Briefing and specialises in compiling steel, iron ore and scrap reference prices by collecting and averaging actual transaction data. Further details of the methodology and specifications for the steel, iron ore and scrap grades covered can be found on the website www.thesteelindex.com. Companies wishing to subscribe to TSI's full set of reference prices or to apply to submit steel, iron ore or scrap price data can do so on the website.
Monday, January 24, 2011
Daily Steel News - 24 Jan 11
SBB Prices - World price +/-
World HRC $/t 765 +77
World Rebar $/t 728 +60
Rebar prices rise in Singapore
Bookings of 15,000-20,000 tonnes of Turkish-origin theoretical-weight rebar were made two weeks ago at
$715-720/t cfr Singapore. These were position cargoes for February shipment offered by traders because
mills’ asking prices are $730/t cfr upwards. “The trader had booked the cargo at below $700,” a trader tells Steel Business Briefing. At that same time, around 20,000 t of Chinese-origin boron-added rebar was also sold to a stockist at $690-695/t cfr Singapore, also believed to be a position cargo. Prime Korean rebar was booked at $730/t cfr Singapore, some traders claim. The domestic price for rebar is currently quoted at S$980-1,000/t ($754-769/t). All prices refer to theoretical-weight rebar. “The market is slowing down for the Chinese New Year holidays. There is no point buying now because prices are not cheap,” a trader in Singapore tells SBB. “It will be clearer after the holidays but sentiment is still firm,” he adds. Due to ongoing projects, demand is good “at the right price,” another says. “The market will pick-up after the holidays,” he tells SBB. As SBB reported previously, offers for imported rebar were prevailing at $660-680/t cfr Singapore in end- December and bookings took place at $650-660/t cfr in second-half December.
Billet prices in Vietnam rise to finished steel levels
Certain Vietnamese billet producers have raised their domestic prices to VND 15-15.4m/tonne ($714- 733/t), up from previous bookings of VND 14.0-14.2m/t ($667-676/t), excluding VAT. “These new prices are too high and are not workable,” a re-roller tells Steel Business Briefing. "Crazy mills are giving these
crazy prices," says a trader who acknowledges that these new billet prices are around the same level as finished steel prices. The prices of state-owned Vietnam Steel Corp's construction long products are unchanged since December because its application to raise prices was turned down by the government. The prices of its wire rod and rebar are listed at VND 14.6-14.9m/t and VND14.7-15.3m/t respectively in South Vietnam. "It is hoped that the government will give its acceptance of higher steel prices before the (Lunar New Year) holidays," a re-roller says. Rebar prices are around VND 14.7m/t in North Vietnam. “People will likely buy billet (at the hiked prices) because there is no chance to get much cheaper material,” a trader in Ho Chi Minh city says. While he acknowledges that the domestic market is not yet at
this new price level, he believes that re-rollers will have to adapt soon. Meanwhile, certain Vietnamese suppliers are aiming to export billet at $685-700/t fob. Since this is higher than the current asking price of $680/t fob for Thai and Malaysian billet, there is very little buying interest. "We prefer selling to the domestic market because prices are good," a manager with a local mill says. He says that supply is "just enough to meet domestic demand."
Iron ore wrap: trading slows as holiday approaches
Trading slowed in the iron ore spot market on Friday after an active day on Thursday. International traders now appear happy to delay sales until after the Chinese New Year holiday (2-8 February), anticipating higher prices when buyers return. Spot prices remained firm with 63% Indian iron ore fines being offered at $193/dry metric tonne cfr China unchanged from the day before, while 62%/61% Indian fines were on offer at $183/dmt. The 62% reference price published by The Steel Index (TSI), a subsidiary of Steel Business Briefing, closed the week at $185.70/dmt, up $0.30/dmt from the day before. Transactions of iron ore stocked at Chinese ports have also slowed as buyers are already leaving the market for the holiday (See related article). But Chinese steel market sentiment remains positive, and steel futures prices on The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) continue to rise. The most liquid May rebar contract gained 1% to close at RMB 4,950/tonne ($752/t) at the end of the week. However, Thursday saw a sell-off on iron ore swaps following news that the iron ore ban in India’s Karnataka state may be lifted in the next few weeks. The Q2 swap was rumoured to have traded at as low as $160/t that day. This compares with over $170/t earlier in the week.
Poor demand and falling $ hit Rotterdam scrap exporters
Spanish scrap buyers are said to have followed Turkey’s lead, and are standing back from the north European export market. No bulk cargoes were known to have sold out of Rotterdam last week. “With things so very quiet, we can only estimate fob value,” a Dutch merchant tells Steel Business Briefing. Shredded has softened, and would be around $472-478/tonne fob, say traders. HMS 1&2 80:20 should be $6/t below the top of this range at $472/t, whereas 70:30 is $12 lower, a source added. That said, scrap merchants cited just one offer last week, which while around this level had no apparent takers: HMS 1&2 70:30 was available from Belgium for $489/tonne cfr Turkey, with freight costs at just over $20/t, some say. “In addition to slack demand, the euro/dollar exchange rate has moved against us,” says an EU scrap exporter. By Friday 21 January, one euro was worth nearly $1.36, compared to less than $1.30 between 7-12 January. In euro terms, the receipts from a $500/t cargo have fallen some €17/t ($25/t), from around €385/t to under €368/t. “And, while the Turks pay in dollars, we pay our suppliers in euros,” the trader explains. Back on 7 January, when the exchange rate was “most favourable”, shredded was said to have sold at $490/t fob. Exporters are also being squeezed by a growing discrepancy in what they paid scrap collectors at the top of the market, and what they can now achieve in a falling market from their overseas buyers, a source adds.
Turkish mills stop deep-sea scrap bookings, offers stay high
Turkish mills have stopped deep-sea scrap bookings after the prices have peaked quickly, but the supply is also tight from both US and EU and the market’s direction remains unclear, Steel Business Briefing learns from market sources. After the recent offers from USA at $515-520/t cfr for HMS 1&2 80:20 and shredded scrap, no bookings or offers were being heard at the end of last week. While some Turkish producers believe that the USA prices will make a correction downwards as the mills stepped away from the bookings, traders tell that US suppliers will not reduce their export prices as the US scrap collectors will not want to sell more cheaply at a time when bad weather is restricting collection. On the other hand, some domestic scrap is now coming into the Turkish market as the collectors/suppliers were waiting for higher prices and were supplying tightly since mid December. This is helping the mills while they are out of the deep sea scrap market. There is still an EU supplier’s offer available at $489/t cfr for HMS 1&2 70:30 since last week, which has not been booked so far. The sources also believe the next week might be determinative, as the Chinese holiday is approaching and the Chinese mills might secure some stocks before the holiday period which would push the scrap prices upwards. "USA domestic prices for February will be set late next week, and current expectations are sideways to up $15/t," says a US supplier. In the CIS region export prices have fallen by around $10/t to $480-485/t levels for A3 grade scrap but are recovering back quickly. The March prices are expected to be over $510-515/t cfr and April is estimated to be over $525/t as the demand for Turkish finished products is expected to peak in this period.
World HRC $/t 765 +77
World Rebar $/t 728 +60
Rebar prices rise in Singapore
Bookings of 15,000-20,000 tonnes of Turkish-origin theoretical-weight rebar were made two weeks ago at
$715-720/t cfr Singapore. These were position cargoes for February shipment offered by traders because
mills’ asking prices are $730/t cfr upwards. “The trader had booked the cargo at below $700,” a trader tells Steel Business Briefing. At that same time, around 20,000 t of Chinese-origin boron-added rebar was also sold to a stockist at $690-695/t cfr Singapore, also believed to be a position cargo. Prime Korean rebar was booked at $730/t cfr Singapore, some traders claim. The domestic price for rebar is currently quoted at S$980-1,000/t ($754-769/t). All prices refer to theoretical-weight rebar. “The market is slowing down for the Chinese New Year holidays. There is no point buying now because prices are not cheap,” a trader in Singapore tells SBB. “It will be clearer after the holidays but sentiment is still firm,” he adds. Due to ongoing projects, demand is good “at the right price,” another says. “The market will pick-up after the holidays,” he tells SBB. As SBB reported previously, offers for imported rebar were prevailing at $660-680/t cfr Singapore in end- December and bookings took place at $650-660/t cfr in second-half December.
Billet prices in Vietnam rise to finished steel levels
Certain Vietnamese billet producers have raised their domestic prices to VND 15-15.4m/tonne ($714- 733/t), up from previous bookings of VND 14.0-14.2m/t ($667-676/t), excluding VAT. “These new prices are too high and are not workable,” a re-roller tells Steel Business Briefing. "Crazy mills are giving these
crazy prices," says a trader who acknowledges that these new billet prices are around the same level as finished steel prices. The prices of state-owned Vietnam Steel Corp's construction long products are unchanged since December because its application to raise prices was turned down by the government. The prices of its wire rod and rebar are listed at VND 14.6-14.9m/t and VND14.7-15.3m/t respectively in South Vietnam. "It is hoped that the government will give its acceptance of higher steel prices before the (Lunar New Year) holidays," a re-roller says. Rebar prices are around VND 14.7m/t in North Vietnam. “People will likely buy billet (at the hiked prices) because there is no chance to get much cheaper material,” a trader in Ho Chi Minh city says. While he acknowledges that the domestic market is not yet at
this new price level, he believes that re-rollers will have to adapt soon. Meanwhile, certain Vietnamese suppliers are aiming to export billet at $685-700/t fob. Since this is higher than the current asking price of $680/t fob for Thai and Malaysian billet, there is very little buying interest. "We prefer selling to the domestic market because prices are good," a manager with a local mill says. He says that supply is "just enough to meet domestic demand."
Iron ore wrap: trading slows as holiday approaches
Trading slowed in the iron ore spot market on Friday after an active day on Thursday. International traders now appear happy to delay sales until after the Chinese New Year holiday (2-8 February), anticipating higher prices when buyers return. Spot prices remained firm with 63% Indian iron ore fines being offered at $193/dry metric tonne cfr China unchanged from the day before, while 62%/61% Indian fines were on offer at $183/dmt. The 62% reference price published by The Steel Index (TSI), a subsidiary of Steel Business Briefing, closed the week at $185.70/dmt, up $0.30/dmt from the day before. Transactions of iron ore stocked at Chinese ports have also slowed as buyers are already leaving the market for the holiday (See related article). But Chinese steel market sentiment remains positive, and steel futures prices on The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) continue to rise. The most liquid May rebar contract gained 1% to close at RMB 4,950/tonne ($752/t) at the end of the week. However, Thursday saw a sell-off on iron ore swaps following news that the iron ore ban in India’s Karnataka state may be lifted in the next few weeks. The Q2 swap was rumoured to have traded at as low as $160/t that day. This compares with over $170/t earlier in the week.
Poor demand and falling $ hit Rotterdam scrap exporters
Spanish scrap buyers are said to have followed Turkey’s lead, and are standing back from the north European export market. No bulk cargoes were known to have sold out of Rotterdam last week. “With things so very quiet, we can only estimate fob value,” a Dutch merchant tells Steel Business Briefing. Shredded has softened, and would be around $472-478/tonne fob, say traders. HMS 1&2 80:20 should be $6/t below the top of this range at $472/t, whereas 70:30 is $12 lower, a source added. That said, scrap merchants cited just one offer last week, which while around this level had no apparent takers: HMS 1&2 70:30 was available from Belgium for $489/tonne cfr Turkey, with freight costs at just over $20/t, some say. “In addition to slack demand, the euro/dollar exchange rate has moved against us,” says an EU scrap exporter. By Friday 21 January, one euro was worth nearly $1.36, compared to less than $1.30 between 7-12 January. In euro terms, the receipts from a $500/t cargo have fallen some €17/t ($25/t), from around €385/t to under €368/t. “And, while the Turks pay in dollars, we pay our suppliers in euros,” the trader explains. Back on 7 January, when the exchange rate was “most favourable”, shredded was said to have sold at $490/t fob. Exporters are also being squeezed by a growing discrepancy in what they paid scrap collectors at the top of the market, and what they can now achieve in a falling market from their overseas buyers, a source adds.
Turkish mills stop deep-sea scrap bookings, offers stay high
Turkish mills have stopped deep-sea scrap bookings after the prices have peaked quickly, but the supply is also tight from both US and EU and the market’s direction remains unclear, Steel Business Briefing learns from market sources. After the recent offers from USA at $515-520/t cfr for HMS 1&2 80:20 and shredded scrap, no bookings or offers were being heard at the end of last week. While some Turkish producers believe that the USA prices will make a correction downwards as the mills stepped away from the bookings, traders tell that US suppliers will not reduce their export prices as the US scrap collectors will not want to sell more cheaply at a time when bad weather is restricting collection. On the other hand, some domestic scrap is now coming into the Turkish market as the collectors/suppliers were waiting for higher prices and were supplying tightly since mid December. This is helping the mills while they are out of the deep sea scrap market. There is still an EU supplier’s offer available at $489/t cfr for HMS 1&2 70:30 since last week, which has not been booked so far. The sources also believe the next week might be determinative, as the Chinese holiday is approaching and the Chinese mills might secure some stocks before the holiday period which would push the scrap prices upwards. "USA domestic prices for February will be set late next week, and current expectations are sideways to up $15/t," says a US supplier. In the CIS region export prices have fallen by around $10/t to $480-485/t levels for A3 grade scrap but are recovering back quickly. The March prices are expected to be over $510-515/t cfr and April is estimated to be over $525/t as the demand for Turkish finished products is expected to peak in this period.
Friday, January 21, 2011
Daily Steel Nws - 21 Jan 11
SBB Prices & Indexes
World price +/-
World HRC $/t 763 +75
World Rebar $/t 728 +60
Traders expect more upside for SE Asian billet import market
Southeast Asia’s market for imported billet is fairly stable, trading sources tell Steel Business Briefing. While prices are inching up, buying activity is still not strong. Recent bookings of Russian-origin billet at $660-665/tonne cfr Southeast Asia and Asean-origin billet has been concluded at $685/t cfr. These include Malaysian billet sold to Indonesia and Thai material to the Philippines. The CIS mills are offering material for March shipment which poses more risk relating to uncertainties over future market direction compared to prompt shipments. Billets from Asean mills have shorter delivery times and enjoy an import duty advantage within the region. Malaysian-origin and Thai-origin billet is currently offered at around $680/t fob. A certain Malaysian mill reports that it has sold at this price to a trader and has since raised its price to $720/t fob. “They offered us at $680/t fob as well but we are not interested,” a trader says. He and others say that the new price is overly high for today’s market. A Thai mill is offering billet at $700/t cfr Philippines. “Buyers are still hesitant but some are concluding ahead of the Chinese New Year holidays,” a regional trader tells SBB. He believes that billet prices – stable for now – will undergo another round of price increases because scrap is firm and "buyers have no choice." Another says: “Billet prices are rising slowly; buyers are not biting and would rather wait till after the holidays to book.” While the CIS mills are aiming to export at $680-690/t cfr SE Asia, scrap prices will ultimately determine suppliers' billet prices.
58% iron ore price at new peak; 62% nears 12-month high: TSI
The latest daily iron ore reference prices released by The Steel Index (TSI) yesterday, Thursday, show that the prices for both 62% and 58% Fe content iron ore have moved strongly upwards during the past week, continuing the trend since early November. Average weekly freight rates from Australia slipped down, while rates from Brazil moved lower initially before returning to the same level. Weekly rates from east coast of India were essentially stable, but freights from west coast fell. The reference price for 58% Fe content iron ore fines is $5.90/dmt higher at $157.50/dmt; above the previous high of 23 April last year.
The reference price for 62% Fe content iron ore fines yesterday showed a $8.90/dmt, or 5%, increase and ended at $185.40/dmt; just below the 2010 peak of 21st April. Daily freight rates from Brazil to China firmed at the start of the week but eased and finished 2% higher. Rates from Australia dropped but then gained to nearly 1% below last week. Daily freight rates for shipments from east coast of India rose 2.5%; rates from west coast dropped nearly 10%. TSI is majority-owned by Steel Business Briefing and specialises in compiling steel, scrap and iron ore reference prices based on actual transaction data. Further details of the methodology and specifications for the two grades of iron ore can be found on the website www.thesteelindex.com. Companies wishing to subscribe to the full set of reference prices or apply to submit iron ore, scrap or steel price data can do so on the website.
More signs of longs markets peaking, as scrap prices stall
Spot 62% Fe iron ore prices last week rose 3.3% to $178.3/dmt, according to The Steel Index, whilst Turkish scrap prices hardly moved. Many steel prices continued to increase, however. Iron ore availability in China was restricted due to both limited supplies and steady demand from local traders and small domestic mills preparing for the spring construction season. Last week, Chinese traders booked 63.5/63% Fe fines from India at $179-181/dmt cfr China and prices have since risen further. Offers for 63.5/63% ore reached $190/dmt. In contrast Turkish scrap demand was slow as local traders and mills were sceptical about passing the higher scrap prices on to the regional markets for rebar, and to a lesser extent billet. In South East Asia though, scrap and billet prices continued to climb, but rebar prices too were responding only sluggishly. In contrast, the mood in the Chinese steel market appears upbeat as the New Year approaches. Withdraw material costs rising, mills hiked their list prices for February, and exchange-traded steel futures soared on anticipation of the higher prices. But again questions remain over underlying demand, with much speculative buying. By and large, strip and plate prices are continuing to rise reflecting the higher Q1 contract prices for iron ore and coking coal, and the expectation of higher Q2 prices. Since the final months of last year, these costs are estimated by SBB to have risen by about $100/t, with some analysts talking about another $100/t for Q2. US sheet prices have risen by more than this, whilst those in Europe have increased by about this amount. Stockists as well as end-users have been buying, highlighting the conditional nature of these increases, particularly in North America.
World price +/-
World HRC $/t 763 +75
World Rebar $/t 728 +60
Traders expect more upside for SE Asian billet import market
Southeast Asia’s market for imported billet is fairly stable, trading sources tell Steel Business Briefing. While prices are inching up, buying activity is still not strong. Recent bookings of Russian-origin billet at $660-665/tonne cfr Southeast Asia and Asean-origin billet has been concluded at $685/t cfr. These include Malaysian billet sold to Indonesia and Thai material to the Philippines. The CIS mills are offering material for March shipment which poses more risk relating to uncertainties over future market direction compared to prompt shipments. Billets from Asean mills have shorter delivery times and enjoy an import duty advantage within the region. Malaysian-origin and Thai-origin billet is currently offered at around $680/t fob. A certain Malaysian mill reports that it has sold at this price to a trader and has since raised its price to $720/t fob. “They offered us at $680/t fob as well but we are not interested,” a trader says. He and others say that the new price is overly high for today’s market. A Thai mill is offering billet at $700/t cfr Philippines. “Buyers are still hesitant but some are concluding ahead of the Chinese New Year holidays,” a regional trader tells SBB. He believes that billet prices – stable for now – will undergo another round of price increases because scrap is firm and "buyers have no choice." Another says: “Billet prices are rising slowly; buyers are not biting and would rather wait till after the holidays to book.” While the CIS mills are aiming to export at $680-690/t cfr SE Asia, scrap prices will ultimately determine suppliers' billet prices.
58% iron ore price at new peak; 62% nears 12-month high: TSI
The latest daily iron ore reference prices released by The Steel Index (TSI) yesterday, Thursday, show that the prices for both 62% and 58% Fe content iron ore have moved strongly upwards during the past week, continuing the trend since early November. Average weekly freight rates from Australia slipped down, while rates from Brazil moved lower initially before returning to the same level. Weekly rates from east coast of India were essentially stable, but freights from west coast fell. The reference price for 58% Fe content iron ore fines is $5.90/dmt higher at $157.50/dmt; above the previous high of 23 April last year.
The reference price for 62% Fe content iron ore fines yesterday showed a $8.90/dmt, or 5%, increase and ended at $185.40/dmt; just below the 2010 peak of 21st April. Daily freight rates from Brazil to China firmed at the start of the week but eased and finished 2% higher. Rates from Australia dropped but then gained to nearly 1% below last week. Daily freight rates for shipments from east coast of India rose 2.5%; rates from west coast dropped nearly 10%. TSI is majority-owned by Steel Business Briefing and specialises in compiling steel, scrap and iron ore reference prices based on actual transaction data. Further details of the methodology and specifications for the two grades of iron ore can be found on the website www.thesteelindex.com. Companies wishing to subscribe to the full set of reference prices or apply to submit iron ore, scrap or steel price data can do so on the website.
More signs of longs markets peaking, as scrap prices stall
Spot 62% Fe iron ore prices last week rose 3.3% to $178.3/dmt, according to The Steel Index, whilst Turkish scrap prices hardly moved. Many steel prices continued to increase, however. Iron ore availability in China was restricted due to both limited supplies and steady demand from local traders and small domestic mills preparing for the spring construction season. Last week, Chinese traders booked 63.5/63% Fe fines from India at $179-181/dmt cfr China and prices have since risen further. Offers for 63.5/63% ore reached $190/dmt. In contrast Turkish scrap demand was slow as local traders and mills were sceptical about passing the higher scrap prices on to the regional markets for rebar, and to a lesser extent billet. In South East Asia though, scrap and billet prices continued to climb, but rebar prices too were responding only sluggishly. In contrast, the mood in the Chinese steel market appears upbeat as the New Year approaches. Withdraw material costs rising, mills hiked their list prices for February, and exchange-traded steel futures soared on anticipation of the higher prices. But again questions remain over underlying demand, with much speculative buying. By and large, strip and plate prices are continuing to rise reflecting the higher Q1 contract prices for iron ore and coking coal, and the expectation of higher Q2 prices. Since the final months of last year, these costs are estimated by SBB to have risen by about $100/t, with some analysts talking about another $100/t for Q2. US sheet prices have risen by more than this, whilst those in Europe have increased by about this amount. Stockists as well as end-users have been buying, highlighting the conditional nature of these increases, particularly in North America.
Monday, January 17, 2011
Daily Steel News - 17 Jan 11
Billet prices continue upward spiral in SE AsiaBillet import prices continue to climb in Southeast Asia. New offers for commercial billet from Thai and Malaysian mills are now at $650/tonne fob or $670-680/t cfr within the region, trading sources tell Steel Business Briefing. Thai-origin commercial billet was booked at $650/t cfr Philippines, and grade 60 vanadium-added billet around $670/t cfr Vietnam and Taiwan more than a week ago. One trader reports hearing Asean-origin billet being booked at around $670/t cfr. Others are unable to confirm this but say that such a deal is possible since offer prices are still firm. "Some may accept this price because offers for Russian billet are at $660/t cfr," says a local trader. Asean-origin billet enjoys a 3% import duty advantage, he notes. Similarly, some traders report that Malaysian-origin commercial billet was booked at around $680/t cfr Indonesia, but importers in Indonesia say that this price sounded a little high. “Certain mills are trying to book vanadium-added billet at this price but they were turned down because the supplier was aiming to sell 3sp/ps billet at this price,” an Indonesian re-roller tells SBB. "But scrap prices keep going up," he adds. There is price resistance because domestic rebar prices in the region are not rising as quickly as imported billet prices. “Buying activity is not high because of the gap between prices of buyers and sellers,” a regional trader tells SBB. “But prices will have to meet eventually,” he adds. Buyers are trying to secure cargoes at $650-660/t cfr but there are hardly any sellers at this level.
Iron ore wrap: China import prices continue surgeThe upward momentum in Chinese iron ore import prices gathered pace on Friday as supply from key exporting regions was hampered by adverse weather conditions. Australian fines were traded some $4/dry metric tonne higher than on Thursday, while a large Chinese trader booked a Panamax cargo of 63.5/63% Fe fines from India’s east coast at $187/dmt cfr China for February loading. Offers for 63.5/63% ore reached $190/dmt. The Steel Index (TSI), a subsidiary of Steel Business Briefing, reported that the reference price for 62% Fe iron ore fines jumped $1.8/dmt overnight to reach $178.3/dmt cfr China at the end of last week. Its 58% Fe reference price hit $153.9/dmt, the highest level in the history of the series. After a slow start to the week, iron ore swap prices have rebounded to reflect the strength of prices in the
physical market. At the time of writing brokers reported trades of the Q2 swap at $167.50/t and the February swap at $174/t. Earlier in the week Q2 was trading at $162/t. Steel market sentiment in China remains bullish, with steel futures prices approaching highs last seen in August (see separate story). The performance of steel futures is widely viewed as an indicator of future Chinese iron ore demand, SBB notes.
Coking coal shortage may push up nickel prices: analystRising coking coal prices driven by floods in Australia could cause a huge proportion of the nickel pig iron
industry in China to close down, hence pushing up nickel metal prices, said Citi Investment Research & Analysis in a 14 January report seen by Steel Business Briefing. Citi estimates average Chinese NPI production costs at $15,200/tonne of which coking coal – based on coking coal prices of $170/t – makes up 43%. If coking coal prices were to rise to $300/t, the average NPI cost would jump to $24,000/t, it calculates. Such an increase will make over 25% – or at least 30,000 t/y – of China’s NPI industry uneconomic. Also, given China’s status as a net coking coal importer, the raw material’s availability will be an issue for NPI producers too. Spot coking coal prices have risen above $300/t, with further price rises likely. “With NPI producers being some of the most responsive and price-sensitive producers in the market, we suspect output would fall relatively quickly once these issues start making an impact,” said Citi. China produced around 105,000t of NPI in 2010, of which 45% was produced using coking coal-dependent blast furnaces (the remainder being produced via EAF), according to Citi. The nickel price “could be an unlikely beneficiary of the supply disruptions inflicting the coking coal market,” it said. Nickel prices now look well supported at nine-month highs of $25,000/t and if upcoming nickel projects fail to deliver, “prices closer to $30,000/t are a distinct possibility in 2011,” the report noted.
Iron ore wrap: China import prices continue surgeThe upward momentum in Chinese iron ore import prices gathered pace on Friday as supply from key exporting regions was hampered by adverse weather conditions. Australian fines were traded some $4/dry metric tonne higher than on Thursday, while a large Chinese trader booked a Panamax cargo of 63.5/63% Fe fines from India’s east coast at $187/dmt cfr China for February loading. Offers for 63.5/63% ore reached $190/dmt. The Steel Index (TSI), a subsidiary of Steel Business Briefing, reported that the reference price for 62% Fe iron ore fines jumped $1.8/dmt overnight to reach $178.3/dmt cfr China at the end of last week. Its 58% Fe reference price hit $153.9/dmt, the highest level in the history of the series. After a slow start to the week, iron ore swap prices have rebounded to reflect the strength of prices in the
physical market. At the time of writing brokers reported trades of the Q2 swap at $167.50/t and the February swap at $174/t. Earlier in the week Q2 was trading at $162/t. Steel market sentiment in China remains bullish, with steel futures prices approaching highs last seen in August (see separate story). The performance of steel futures is widely viewed as an indicator of future Chinese iron ore demand, SBB notes.
Coking coal shortage may push up nickel prices: analystRising coking coal prices driven by floods in Australia could cause a huge proportion of the nickel pig iron
industry in China to close down, hence pushing up nickel metal prices, said Citi Investment Research & Analysis in a 14 January report seen by Steel Business Briefing. Citi estimates average Chinese NPI production costs at $15,200/tonne of which coking coal – based on coking coal prices of $170/t – makes up 43%. If coking coal prices were to rise to $300/t, the average NPI cost would jump to $24,000/t, it calculates. Such an increase will make over 25% – or at least 30,000 t/y – of China’s NPI industry uneconomic. Also, given China’s status as a net coking coal importer, the raw material’s availability will be an issue for NPI producers too. Spot coking coal prices have risen above $300/t, with further price rises likely. “With NPI producers being some of the most responsive and price-sensitive producers in the market, we suspect output would fall relatively quickly once these issues start making an impact,” said Citi. China produced around 105,000t of NPI in 2010, of which 45% was produced using coking coal-dependent blast furnaces (the remainder being produced via EAF), according to Citi. The nickel price “could be an unlikely beneficiary of the supply disruptions inflicting the coking coal market,” it said. Nickel prices now look well supported at nine-month highs of $25,000/t and if upcoming nickel projects fail to deliver, “prices closer to $30,000/t are a distinct possibility in 2011,” the report noted.
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